Shifting Tides: Nearly 1 in 5 Homeowners Eyeing a Sale in the Next Three Years

• The housing market is a dynamic landscape, and recent data reveals a noteworthy trend: approximately 19% of homeowners are either actively listing their homes or seriously considering selling within the next three years. This figure, while slightly down from peak levels in 2023 and early 2024, still indicates a significant portion of homeowners contemplating a move. Let's delve into the driving forces behind these decisions.

  Key Findings:

  • Selling Intentions: 19% of homeowners are considering selling within the next three years, a slight decrease from the higher percentages seen in 2023 and early 2024, but above 2021 and 2022 levels.
  • Mortgage Rate Impact: 11% of mortgaged homeowners have rates above 6%, a stark contrast to the 6% seen in Q4 2022. This rise in rates is a significant factor influencing homeowner decisions.
  • Urban vs. Suburban/Rural: Urban selling intentions have decreased, with 23% of urban homeowners planning to sell, down from 29% in Q4 2023. Suburban and rural intentions remain relatively stable.
  • Regional Trends: The South has seen a gradual increase in selling intentions over the past four years, with 21% planning to sell in the next three years. Other regions show similar proportions when adjusted for demographics.

  

  Diving Deeper: Reasons for Selling

  For those considering a sale, several key factors are at play:

  • Upgraded Living: 55% desire a home with upgraded or more desirable features.
  • Preferred Alternatives: 56% have found other homes they prefer.
  • Financial Gain: 49% plan to sell for profit or leverage equity.
  • Market Timing: 39% believe they'll get a better deal on a new home now, and 45% think they can sell for more money now.
  • Changing Family Dynamics: 34% cite a growing household, while 41% cite a shrinking one.

  Table: Reasons to Sell (Q4 2024 vs. Previous Quarters)

  Reasons to Sell	This Quarter (Q4 2024)	Last Quarter (Q3 2024)	Last Year (Q4 2023)
  New Home Needs & Characteristics
  Want a home with upgraded or more desirable features	55%	52%	55%
  Don’t want to be responsible for repairs/maintenance	32%	32%	37%
  Want more outdoor space	51%	42%	44%
  I want home office space	28%	26%	33%
  My home no longer fits my health needs	26%	29%	31%
  I found other homes that I prefer over my current home	56%	48%	50%
  I want to change the current layout or floor plan of my house	49%	42%	53%
  Family Structure
  The size of my family/household is getting larger	34%	23%	31%
  The size of my family/household is getting smaller	41%	43%	40%
  I had a recent life change (e.g. got married, got divorced, had a baby)	33%	30%	32%
  Financial
  To sell the home for a profit or use the equity for another purpose	49%	50%	47%
  I think I’ll get a better deal on a new home now than in the future	39%	32%	37%
  I think I’ll be able to sell my home for more money now than in the future	45%	39%	39%
  I can no longer afford my home	24%	17%	23%
  Changing Locations
  I want to live closer to family	42%	30%	36%
  Reduce commuting time	27%	22%	31%
  I want to live around people who share my values	31%	30%	36%
  I want to live in an area that share my politics	27%	19%	26%
  Move to a school district that is a good fit	21%	17%	27%

  Housing Market Influences

  Housing market conditions are significantly influencing selling decisions:

  • 75% of selling-intentioned homeowners cite at least one market change as a factor.
  • Notable increases include those influenced by lowering home prices (34%), recent mortgage rate changes (40%), and less competition (32%).

  Table: Housing Market Influences (Q4 2024 vs. Previous Quarters)

  Housing Market influences	This Quarter (Q4 2024)	Last Quarter (Q3 2024)	Last Year (Q4 2024)
  Cited one or more housing market reasons	75%	66%	67%
  Lowering home prices	34%	25%	31%
  Increasing home prices	39%	49%	43%
  Recent changes in mortgage interest rates	40%	29%	38%
  Less competition for homes	32%	21%	26%
  More competition for homes	37%	35%	40%

  Why Homeowners Are Staying Put

  Conversely, 81% of homeowners have no plans to sell in the next three years. Key reasons include:

  • Home Sweet Home: 73% simply love their current home.
  • Financial Stability: 44% worry about finding or affording a new home.
  • Anticipated Market Changes: 44% anticipate better sale prices if they wait.

  Table: Reasons Not to Sell (Q4 2024 vs. Previous Quarters)

  Reasons Not to Sell	This Quarter (Q4 2024)	Last Quarter (Q3 2024)	Last Year (Q4 2023)
  My Current Home
  I love my current home	73%	66%	65%
  I am planning or completing a home renovation (or just completed)	37%	30%	34%
  Financial
  I won’t be able to find and/or afford a new home	44%	45%	44%
  My current financial situation is uncertain or precarious	35%	33%	28%
  I anticipate a more favorable home sale price if I wait	44%	42%	44%
  I recently refinanced my home/mortgage	19%	18%	17%
  My mortgage payments are paused or reduced	16%	14%	15%
  Family Needs
  Life is too uncertain for me and/or my household	39%	33%	37%
  I am concerned about my health or a family member’s health	31%	20%	24%
  My children or other family members have moved back in with me	23%	16%	19%

  Future Moves and Market Confidence

  • 31% of selling-intentioned homeowners plan a long-distance move, while 69% plan a short-distance move. Urban homeowners are more likely to move locally.
  • 62% of sellers expect to spend at least as much on their next home as they make from their current one.
  • Strong Confidence: 91% are confident they can sell within their timeframe, and 94% are confident they can sell for a profit.
  • General Market Perception: While homeowners are confident in selling, the general population views it as a poor time to buy.
     

In essence, the current housing market presents a complex picture of shifting homeowner intentions, influenced by fluctuating mortgage rates, evolving family needs, and a nuanced understanding of market timing. While a significant portion of homeowners are poised to capitalize on current conditions, a larger majority remain firmly rooted, valuing their existing homes and cautiously navigating financial uncertainties. This balance between sellers and stayers underscores the importance of staying informed and adaptable in today's real estate landscape. Whether you're considering a move or content to stay put, understanding these trends can empower you to make informed decisions. What are your thoughts on the current market? Share your experiences or questions in the comments below, or contact us today for personalized guidance on your real estate journey.